Many developing countries do not have adequate health infrastructure or the capacity to effectively implement lockdown policies to contain the spread of COVID-19. This column studies the historical experience of Italy during the 1918 Great Influenza in order to shed light on the consequences of pandemics in societies where it is difficult to implement lockdown policies or where healthcare systems are lacking. Using regional GDP and mortality data, it finds a strong negative effect of the pandemic on local economic growth. However, these adverse effects mostly dissipated three years after the pandemic.

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